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目的：开展肾综合征出血热（ＨＦＲＳ）发生的逐步回归分析，提高测报的准确性。方法：鼠类带病毒状况，用免疫荧光技术检测；同时根据气象资料、人群患病情况进行数据分析。结果：黑线姬鼠密度、带病毒率、降雨量均与ＨＦＲＳ发病人数有显著的相关关系。对上述因子进行逐步回归及多元回归分析，探讨ＨＦＲＳ发病数的消长规律。选择３个月前的降雨量、２个月前的黑线姬鼠带病毒率为因子，预测２个月后ＨＦＲＳ发病人数；选每年春季降雨量为因子，预测该年ＨＦＲＳ发病率，理论预测值与实际值基本吻合。结论：用建立的方程对西安郊县ＨＦＲＳ发病率的短期和中期测报是可行的
Objective: To carry out stepwise regression analysis on the occurrence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and improve the accuracy of the report. Methods: The viral status of mice was detected by immunofluorescence technique. At the same time, the data were analyzed according to the meteorological data and the prevalence of the crowd. Results: The density, virus carrying rate and rainfall of Apodemus agrarius were significantly correlated with the incidence of HFRS. Stepwise regression and multivariate regression analysis of the above factors, to explore the incidence of HFRS growth and decline. The rainfall of 3 months ago and the rate of virus of Apodemus agrarius two months ago were selected as the factor to predict the number of HFRS patients after 2 months. The spring rainfall in each year was taken as a factor to forecast the incidence of HFRS in that year. The theoretical prediction The value is basically consistent with the actual value. Conclusion: It is feasible to establish the short-term and medium-term measures of incidence of HFRS by using the established equations
