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中国自2005年开始实行双稳健的宏观经济政策,这意味着实行了8年多的积极财政政策的结束,但是关于积极财政政策在实行过程中公共投资对民间投资产生挤出还是挤入效应的争论一直没有停止。本文采用1997年1月至2004年12月的月度数据,运用VAR模型对中国存在挤出效应的机制进行了经验检验。结果表明,可能会导致民间投资减少的三种挤出效应机制均不存在,公共投资的扩大产生了对民间投资的挤入效应。
Since 2005, China started to implement a bi-stable macroeconomic policy, which means the end of an active fiscal policy of more than eight years has been implemented. However, whether public investment has crowded out or squeezed into private investment during the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy The debate has not stopped. In this paper, monthly data from January 1997 to December 2004 are used to empirically test the mechanism of squeeze effect in China using VAR model. The results show that none of the three crowding-out mechanisms that may result in a decrease in private investment do not exist and the expansion of public investment has created crowding-in effects on private investment.