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在传统的对称双垄断时机选择期权博弈模型的基础上,引入泊松跳跃过程来描述突破性技术创新对市场冲击的影响,并且定义了技术跨越的市场冲击影响指数,构建了突破性技术创新的实物期权博弈模型。对博弈均衡进行分析得知,仅当产品市场反应适中时,企业才有较强的突破性技术创新动力,并对这一结论进行了行业背景分析,即成长性行业中,由于存在超额收益,企业更倾向于进行突破性技术创新。最后本文对模型中关键的参数进行了分析,技术跨越的市场冲击影响指数J和泊松过程参数λ对投资价值和投资临界均有正向影响。
Based on the traditional option-game model with symmetrical and dual monopoly timing, this paper introduces the Poisson jumping process to describe the impact of groundbreaking technological innovation on market impact, and defines the market impact impact index of technology leapfrogging, and constructs the breakthrough technology innovation Real option game model. Analysis of the game equilibrium shows that only when the product market response is moderate, companies have a strong impetus for breakthrough technological innovation and industry background analysis of this conclusion, that is, growth industries, due to the existence of excess returns, Enterprises are more inclined to make breakthrough technological innovations. Finally, the paper analyzes the key parameters of the model, and the market impact impact index J and the Poisson process parameter λ both have a positive impact on the investment value and investment critical.