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采用周期外延预测模型的正交化筛选方案与相关分析相结合的方法建立了天气模型(SNWM)。运行SNWM可以根据历史资料生成未来1年的天气文件。经过对1990,1992,1993年气象要素的预测值(旬或旬平均值)与观测资料比较,除降水准确率为66.7%外,辐射、最高气温、最低气温的准确率均在77.78%~88.89%之间。CERES—MAIZE玉米生育模拟模型采用由SNWM生成的天气文件作为输入运行时则具备了预测功能.经1992,1993年田间试验验证,结果表明,CERES—MAIZE模型的预测、模拟结果与实测结果吻合.
The weather model (SNWM) was established by the method of orthogonalization of periodic epitaxial prediction model and correlation analysis. Running SNWM generates weather files for the next year based on historical data. After comparing the forecast values of meteorological elements in 1990, 1992 and 1993 with the observed data, the accuracy rates of the radiation, the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature are all 77 except for the accuracy rate of 66.7%. 78% ~ 88.89% between. The CERES-MAIZE corn reproductive simulation model has predictive capabilities when using weather files generated by SNWM as input runs. The results of field tests in 1992 and 1993 show that the prediction and simulation results of CERES-MAIZE model are in good agreement with the measured results.