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新周期,是危机次第释放,动荡不安的周期。2016年是一个新周期的起点。由于许多经济体不愿意面对危机,不愿意面对调整的阵痛,继续通过刺激政策延缓阵痛,延缓调整。于是,我们看到:那些原本应该步入调整的商品价格,由于去产能等干预,掉头向上。这种干预短期来看,让阵痛似乎变小了,然而,疼痛并未终止。这种投入或者赌注其实是一种巨大的冒险。因为,理想与现实之间的隔阂越来越大,投入与产出之间的距离越来越远。我们不得不面对一种局面:以
The new cycle is the period of crisis release and turmoil. 2016 is the beginning of a new cycle. Because many economies are unwilling to face the crisis and are unwilling to face the pain of adjustment, they have continued to delay their adjustment through stimulus policies to delay their pains. So, we see: Those who should have been adjusting to the price of goods, due to intervention and other production, turn up. In the short term, the pain seems to be getting smaller. However, the pain has not stopped. This kind of investment or betting is actually a huge adventure. Because the gap between ideal and reality is growing, the distance between input and output goes further and further. We have to face a situation: to