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近几年,我国经济增速持续放缓,对于这一现象存在多种解读。本文对其中的几种与事实不符或以偏概全的解读加以澄清。我们认为,第一,“人口红利消失”并不能很好地解释经济增速下降。如果我国劳动生产率仍然保持较高增速,未来的经济增长就能以较高的速度持续下去。第二,指责我国投资率过高、投资缺乏效率的说法也是值得商榷的。较大的投资规模和较高的投资效率是推动我国过去经济高速增长的重要力量,也是今后我国经济快速增长的重要保障。第三,认为我国劳动力成本上升从而导致国际竞争力下降的看法也是不成立的。与其他一些国家相比,我国仍具有许多优势,且我国出口逐渐转向资本、技术密集型产品。“中国制造”的竞争力仍然强劲。
In recent years, the economic growth in our country has been slowing down. There are many interpretations of this phenomenon. This article clarifies several of these facts that are either incompatible or overly general. In our opinion, first, the disappearance of the “demographic dividend” does not explain the economic growth declining well. If our country’s labor productivity still maintains a relatively high growth rate, the future economic growth will continue at a high speed. Second, it is also debatable that China’s investment rate is too high and its investment is inefficient. The larger investment scale and higher investment efficiency are the important forces for promoting the rapid economic growth of our country in the past and the important safeguard for the rapid economic growth of our country in the future. Thirdly, the view that the cost of labor in our country has risen resulting in a decline in international competitiveness is also untenable. Compared with other countries, our country still has many advantages and our exports have gradually shifted to capital-intensive and technology-intensive products. “Made in China ” competitiveness is still strong.