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可持续发展是当今世界各国公认的发展准则,但其概念的模糊性与测度方法的单一性阻碍了这一理念的有效应用。在水生态阈值、经济增长底限值和社会发展警戒值等共同约束下,水生态保护目标、经济增长目标与社会发展目标等多目标相互博弈而存在区间范围的基础上,提出了流域可持续性及其理想域的概念以及时间、空间、认知、子系统效益博弈关系、可行区间等决定要素。基于优化方法建立流域可持续性理想域测度模型,并以此为基准,提出了考虑流域系统内外相互作用现实状态的改进离差法测度模型。结果表明:流域可持续性理想域和现实状态测度模型更加符合实际情况,且能够反映流域内外的交互作用对可持续性的影响,为今后流域可持续发展评估提供了一种新思路和方法。
Sustainable development is a generally recognized development guideline in all countries in the world today. However, the ambiguity of the concept and the unity of the measuring method have hindered the effective application of this concept. On the basis of multi-objective game theory of aquatic ecosystem protection, economic growth and social development, under the common constraints of water ecological threshold, economic growth limit value and social development alert value and so on, The concept of sexuality and its ideal domain as well as the determinants of time, space, cognition, the game relationship of subsystem benefits, feasible range and so on. Based on the optimization method, an ideal measure model of the sustainable area of the basin is established, and based on this, an improved measure method is put forward to consider the actual state of the interaction between the inside and outside of the catchment. The results show that the model of ideal and realistic state of sustainability in the basin is more in line with the actual situation and can reflect the impact of the interaction between inside and outside the basin on sustainability, which provides a new idea and method for the sustainable development of the basin in the future.