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本文讨论国际原油价格的波动对我国价格水平的影响。理论分析表明国际油价对我国价格水平的影响主要是通过成本传导的。实证研究的结果表明,从长期来看,随着石油对外依存度的提高,国际油价上涨会给PPI带来更多和更大的影响,也会促进CPI在一定程度上上升的压力。不过就我国目前的情况来看,由PPI向CPI的传导存在一些困难,国际油价的波动对CPI影响还不显著。
This article discusses the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on China’s price level. Theoretical analysis shows that the impact of international oil prices on China’s price level is mainly transmitted through costs. The empirical results show that, in the long run, with the increase of foreign dependence on oil, the rise of international oil price will bring more and greater impact on PPI and will also promote the CPI to some extent upward pressure. However, judging from the current situation in our country, there are some difficulties in the transmission from PPI to CPI. The fluctuation of international oil prices has no significant impact on CPI.