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对1990～1994年生长季杨树细菌溃疡病病情每月的观测数据．分别进行指数、单分子、逻辑斯谛、高姆比兹、韦布尔和理查德六种曲线的非线性回归分析．得出结果、病情随时间的进展曲线以理查德模型为最优．同时说明杨树细菌溃疡病属于多循环的复利病害．在病害防治和预测上要采取相应的策略和方法。
The monthly observation data on the incidence of poplar bacterial and ulcer diseases during the growing season of 1990 ~ 1994. Nonlinear regression analysis of the six curves of index, single molecule, logistic, high Mbz, Weibull and Richard respectively. The results showed that the progression of the disease over time was optimal with the Richard model. At the same time that poplar bacterial ulcer disease is multi-cycle compound disease. In disease prevention and prediction to take appropriate strategies and methods.