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目的建立未来3年深圳市售乳制品中铅含量的预测数学模型,评估人群暴露水平,以了解其可能风险。方法根据2001～2010年深圳市乳制品中铅检测数据,应用Cubic曲线模型对未来3年深圳市售乳制品中铅含量进行预测,并结合深圳市膳食调查人群乳制品消费量数据,评估人群的暴露水平。结果 Cubic曲线模型结果显示2011-2013年深圳市乳制品铅含量有上升降趋势,为0.087～0.246mg/kg;人群乳制品铅暴露量也呈上升趋势,为9.962～28.167μg/d/p,占PTDI的4.648%～13.144%。结论目前深圳市居民通过乳制品摄入铅的风险尚较小。
Objective To establish a predictive mathematical model of lead in dairy products in Shenzhen in the next 3 years and assess the population exposure level so as to understand the possible risks. Methods According to the data of lead in dairy products in Shenzhen from 2001 to 2010, the Cubic curve model was used to predict the content of lead in the dairy products in Shenzhen in the next 3 years. Based on the data of dairy consumption in Shenzhen, Exposure level. Results The results of Cubic curve showed that the lead content of dairy products in Shenzhen increased and decreased from 0.087 to 0.246 mg / kg in 2011-2013. The lead exposure of dairy products also showed an upward trend of 9.962-28.167 μg / d / Accounting for 4.648% ~ 13.144% of PTDI. Conclusions At present, Shenzhen residents have a relatively low risk of consuming lead through dairy products.