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应用面板门限回归模型,研究了不同因素对货运车辆能耗的影响。选取交通运输部能耗统计监测的266辆货车车辆能耗监测数据,构造了平衡面板数据进行了实证分析。通过固定效应转换得到了门限变量的最小二乘估计值,并采用自助法进行稳健地门限效应检验。发现平均运距在8.54km和208.99km处,存在两次显著的结构突变。据此建立了二重门限回归模型,分析平均运距、里程利用率、工作率和吨位利用率等因素对车辆单耗的影响,并与固定效应回归模型进行了对比。研究结果表明,提高吨位利用率更有利于降低货车能源单耗,并且随着运距的增加,能耗单耗下降更多。
The panel threshold regression model was used to study the influence of different factors on the energy consumption of freight vehicles. The energy consumption monitoring data of 266 trucks and vehicles monitored by energy consumption statistics of Ministry of Transport are selected and the data of the balance panel are constructed and analyzed empirically. The least square estimate of the threshold variable was obtained by the fixed effect conversion, and self-help method was used to test the robust threshold effect. Found that the average distance at 8.54km and 208.99km Department, there are two significant structural mutations. Based on this, a dual-threshold regression model was established to analyze the influence of average distance, mileage utilization, work rate and tonnage utilization on vehicle consumption and compared with the fixed-effect regression model. The results show that improving the utilization of tonnage is more conducive to reducing the unit energy consumption of trucks, and with the increase of the transportation distance, the unit consumption of energy reduces more.