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为准确阐述中国煤矿安全监察机构变化对中国煤矿安全生产结果的影响,结合演化博弈缺乏种群数量变化的不足,建立基于弱肉强食模型的煤矿安全监察演化模型。同时引入系统动力学(SD),分析不同主体行为共生演化的稳定点及其稳定性条件,探究不同参数对系统稳定点的影响;然后,对煤矿安全监察弱肉强食模型的共生演化过程进行仿真分析。研究结果表明:弱肉强食模型中不同主体行为之间共生演化的稳定点取决于违规生产行为对监察行为的供养能力;不同参数对系统稳定点的影响存在差异。研究结论可以有效解释中国煤矿安全监察机构变化后煤矿死亡事故的变化特征。
In order to accurately explain the influence of the changes of China’s coal mine safety supervision agencies on the results of coal mine safety in China, a coal mine safety supervision and evolvement model based on the law of the jungle meat was established based on the lack of population changes in evolutionary game. At the same time, the system dynamics (SD) is introduced to analyze the stability points and the stability conditions of the symbiotic evolution of different body behaviors and to explore the influence of different parameters on the stability of the system. Then, the symbiotic evolution process of the law of the jungle of the coal mine safety supervision is simulated and analyzed. The results show that the stable point of symbiotic evolution between different main behaviors in the jungle-dependent model depends on the ability of non-compliance production behavior to provide supervisory behavior. The influence of different parameters on the stability of the system is different. The conclusion of the study can effectively explain the changing characteristics of coal mine fatal accidents after the change of China’s coal mine safety supervision agencies.