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地震序列模型确定了断层带内中强以上地震的时间、强度和位置三方面的非随机性,从而导致了地震序列的特定性。本文按地震序列模型重演了鲜水河断裂带过去约一百年的地震序列,各次地震的时间偏差不超过其重复周期的10％。震级偏差不超过0.3,破裂位置也基本吻合。在此基础上,对该断裂带未来150年的中强以上地震序列进行了预测。
The earthquake sequence model determines the non-randomness of time, intensity and location of moderate-strong earthquakes within the fault zone, which leads to the particularity of the earthquake sequence. In this paper, the earthquake sequence model reproduces the Xianshuihe fault over the past about one hundred years of seismic sequences, the time deviation of each earthquake does not exceed 10% of its repetitive period. Magnitude deviation does not exceed 0.3, the rupture position is also basically consistent. Based on this, the prediction of the earthquake sequence above mid-strong for the next 150 years in this fault zone is predicted.