论文部分内容阅读
在国际关系中,贸易差额成为衡量双边商业活动的输赢的重要指标,严重影响着反倾销裁决和保障措施等贸易救济的使用,影响着国际资本市场的业绩和走向,很多情况下成为国家一级和国际一级作出政策裁决的落脚点和出发点。近年来,中国与西方发达国家的贸易摩擦越来越频繁,而且有日益加剧的趋势。中国和美国的双边贸易赤字已经引发美国方面对中国非公平贸易的指责和威胁采取惩罚性措施。本文第一部分阐述了传统的国际贸易差额统计系统的缺陷,主要是其忽略了FDI和中间产品贸易的准确记录,以及商品产地与商品所有权的混淆,导致扭曲了国际贸易的真实情况(中国的贸易顺差被严重高估);第二部分研究中国要维持顺差所付出的成本,分为外汇储备和外汇占款成本、持有美国国债成本、以及出口补贴成本,说明中国不是中美贸易的赢家,实际上真正的利润被美国等外国公司所得,中国并没有得到全球化带来的利润。
In international relations, trade balances become an important measure of winning or losing of bilateral commercial activities, seriously affecting the use of trade remedies such as anti-dumping rulings and safeguards, affecting the performance and trend of international capital markets. In many cases, they have become state-level and The end-point and starting point for making policy decisions at the international level. In recent years, the trade frictions between China and the developed western countries have become more frequent and have an increasing tendency. The bilateral trade deficit between China and the United States has caused the United States to take punitive measures against allegations and threats against China’s unfair trade. The first part of this article elaborates on the shortcomings of the traditional international trade balance statistics system, mainly because it ignores the accurate records of the trade of FDI and intermediate products, and the confusion between the origin of the goods and the ownership of the goods, which distorts the real situation of international trade (China’s trade The second is the study of China’s cost of maintaining a surplus, divided into foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange costs, the cost of holding Treasury bonds and the cost of export subsidies, indicating that China is not the winner of Sino-U.S. Trade, In fact, the real profits are derived from foreign companies such as the United States. China has not enjoyed the profits brought about by globalization.