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石油是重要的战略资源,进入新世纪以来石油价格一路高涨且波动频繁,油价成为全球关注的焦点。本文从供求驱动,美元汇率,成本变动,投机行为,地缘政治等几个方面研究影响石油价格波动的因素。然后分析由于近年来石油价格不断波动,给我国宏观经济运行所带来的种种影响,并通过实证分析验证油价与各项宏观经济指标之间的关系。
Oil is an important strategic resource. Since the oil price rises and fluctuates frequently in the new century, oil price has become the focus of global attention. This article studies the factors that influence the fluctuation of oil price from the aspects of supply and demand, exchange rate of U.S. dollar, cost change, speculation and geopolitics. Then it analyzes the various impacts on the macro-economic operation of our country due to the fluctuating oil prices in recent years, and verifies the relationship between the oil price and various macroeconomic indicators through empirical analysis.