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目的探索杭州市轮状病毒感染与气象因子之间的关系,建立能够表达两者之间关系的拟合模型,为预测杭州市轮状病毒感染情况提供依据。方法收集2002-2007年杭州市月度气象资料(气温、湿度、雨日数、降水量、日照时数,气压)和月度轮状病毒阳性率资料,使用SPSS12.0进行描述性统计,并进行多组比较的卡方检验,对轮状病毒阳性率与气象因素进行相关分析和回归分析。结果冬季的轮状病毒阳性率高于其他三季(χ2=9.082,P=0.003);轮状病毒阳性率与月雨日数呈负相关(Spearmen相关系数r=-0.783,P=0.003),与月平均降水量呈负相关(r=-0.620,P=0.032),应用逐步回归分析得到的拟合模型为Y=129.95-1.667X+0.0063X2;(X为月平均降水量,Y为轮状病毒阳性率)。结论轮状病毒流行主要发生在冬季,经呼吸道传播是其重要的感染途径,月平均降水量与轮状病毒阳性率呈负相关关系,是影响当地轮状病毒感染率的主要气象因素。
Objective To explore the relationship between rotavirus infection and meteorological factors in Hangzhou and to establish a fitting model that can express the relationship between rotavirus and Hangzhou in order to provide a basis for predicting the rotavirus infection in Hangzhou. Methods The data of monthly meteorological data (temperature, humidity, rain days, precipitation, sunshine duration, air pressure) and monthly rotavirus positive rate in Hangzhou were collected from 2002 to 2007, and descriptive statistics were performed using SPSS12.0. Comparisons of chi-square test, rotavirus positive rate and weather factors were analyzed and regression analysis. Results The positive rate of rotavirus in winter was higher than that in other three seasons (χ2 = 9.082, P = 0.003). The positive rate of rotavirus was negatively correlated with the number of lunar days (Spearmen correlation coefficient r = -0.783, P = 0.003) (R = -0.620, P = 0.032). The fitting model obtained by stepwise regression analysis was Y = 129.95-1.667X + 0.0063X2; (X is the monthly average precipitation, Y is the number of rotavirus Positive rate). Conclusions The epidemic of rotavirus mainly occurs in winter, and the transmission through the respiratory tract is an important route of infection. The monthly average precipitation is negatively correlated with the positive rate of rotavirus, which is the main meteorological factor affecting the rotavirus infection rate in the area.