2013年:外围环境复杂多变 中国经济步入中速增长“新常态”

• 作 者: 黄志强
• 机 构: 中国银行国际金融研究所,
• 出 处: 国际金融
• 发表日期: 2013年01期
• 关键词: 外围环境 债务问题 紧缩财政 主引擎 政府债务 严峻考验 货币政策 债券融资 融资总量 南欧国家

债务问题是困扰全球经济的头号难题,欧洲深陷债务困境,美国财政问题持续发酵,日本政府债务创出历史新高。2013年将是复杂、动荡的一年,发达国家继续面临债务问题的严峻考验,欧洲需要在持续紧缩财政的前提下促进经济复苏,美国需要制订中期财政整顿计划,逐步摆脱减赤与保增长之间的两难。受此影响,中国经济将切换增长动力,内需,尤其是消费将逐步发展为拉动经济增长的主引擎。

Debt is the number one problem plaguing the global economy, Europe’s deep debt dilemma, the U.S. financial problems continue to be fermented, and Japan’s government debt hit a record high. 2013 will be a complex and turbulent one. Developed countries continue to face the severe test of debt problems. Europe needs to promote economic recovery with continued austerity measures. The United States needs to formulate a medium-term fiscal consolidation plan and gradually get rid of deficit reduction and growth protection. Dilemma between. Affected by this, the Chinese economy will switch its growth momentum. Domestic demand, especially consumption, will gradually develop into a main engine of economic growth.