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使用1998年1月至2013年7月间月度上海住宅价格指数,采用自回归均值回复模型(ARMR),尝试对上海住宅价格进行解释。模型效果测试表明模型与实际住宅价格指数之间匹配良好。上海房价均衡月度增长率为0.77%;自回归系数显示43%的前两个月增长率将持续到当月;均值回复系数表明如果上月房价高出(低于)均衡水平1个百分点,下月房价增长率将下降(增加)大约0.022个百分点。
Using the monthly Shanghai housing price index from January 1998 to July 2013, an autoregressive average return model (ARMR) was used to explain Shanghai housing prices. Model effect tests show a good match between the model and the real house price index. Shanghai house price equilibrium monthly growth rate of 0.77%; regression coefficient showed that 43% of the first two months of growth will continue into the month; average recovery coefficient indicates that if last month house prices above (below) the equilibrium level of 1 percentage point next month House prices will decline (increase) about 0.022 percentage points.