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通过分析随机和典型情景模拟法的优点,构建综合这两种方法的海洋溢油事故污染危害预测评估流程和主要评估指数。以渤海辽东湾为研究区域,选取一处海洋石油平台作为潜在溢油地点,7个国家级海洋保护区作为污染受体,开展假设的海底输油管道溢油事故情景算例演示。在经验证的潮流场模拟数据和2012~2013年预报风场数据基础上,利用随机情景模拟来预测全年统计条件下溢油污染概率、危害后果等指数的空间分布,分析评估研究区域的整体污染危害风险;通过典型情景模拟来预测不利风向条件下溢油漂移轨迹与扩散范围、到达时间等指数,分析评估溢油对具体敏感目标的污染风险。应用表明,随机和典型情景模拟的结合能够提供更为全面、客观的溢油污染预测评估结果,有利于提高风险评估结论的科学性和制定有效的风险管理对策。
By analyzing the advantages of stochastic and typical scenario simulation methods, a prediction and assessment process of marine oil spill pollution hazards and the main evaluation index are constructed. Taking Liaodong Bay in the Bohai Sea as the research area, a offshore oil platform was selected as the potential oil spill site. Seven national marine protected areas were selected as pollution receptors to carry out a hypothetical scenario demonstration of oil spill accidents at the seabed oil pipeline. Based on the validated tidal current field simulation data and the wind field data from 2012 to 2013, the stochastic scenario simulation is used to predict the spatial distribution of oil spill pollution probability and the hazard consequences under the annual statistical conditions, and the overall assessment of the study area The risk of pollution is predicted. The oil spill drift trajectory, diffusion range and arrival time under unfavorable wind direction are predicted through typical scenario simulation, and the risk of oil spill to specific sensitive targets is analyzed and evaluated. The application shows that the combination of random and typical scenario simulation can provide a more comprehensive and objective result of oil spill pollution prediction and evaluation, which is helpful to improve the scientificity of risk assessment conclusion and formulate effective risk management measures.