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本文根据２８个杉木采用不同营林措施径流小区的定位观测材料，利用数量化理论Ⅰ模型，对影响杉木幼林地水土流失的自然和人为因素进行排序研究，建立了南方杉木幼林地水土流失的预测模型，首次利用定量数据确定了杉木不同营林措施对杉木幼林地水土流失的影响程度，这对于有针对性地采取措施防治杉木幼林地水土流失，解决杉木连栽地力衰退，具有现实意义．
In this paper, based on the observation data of runoff plot layout of 28 Chinese fir plantations with different silvicultural practices, this paper uses the quantitative theory Ⅰ model to study the natural and anthropogenic factors that affect the soil erosion in the young plantation of Cunninghamia lanceolata, and establishes the prediction of soil erosion in the young plantation of Chinese fir Model for the first time using quantitative data to determine the effect of different afforestation measures on the soil erosion in the young forest of Chinese fir. It is of practical significance to take targeted measures to prevent and control soil erosion in the young plantation of Cunninghamia lanceolata and solve the problem of soil fertility in continuous plantation of Cunninghamia.