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进入7月,国际原油在月初创出147.90美元历史新高之后,出现大幅下滑,短短一个月跌幅达到20%,油价中期顶部基本确立。近期油价大幅度下挫,核心原因是美国经济放缓的影响力日益扩展到欧洲、日本,以及作为上半年油价大幅度上涨重要支撑的新兴发展中国家,进入三季度全球经济放缓的迹象越发明显,直接导致原油市场供求关系的重大转变,高油价对原油需求的抑制影响逐步显现,同时欧洲、日本经济的下滑也刺激了近期美元汇率的大幅上涨,助推了国际原油价格下跌。
Into July, the international crude oil hit a record high of 147.90 U.S. dollars at the beginning of the month, and it fell sharply in 20 months. The top half of oil prices was basically established. The recent sharp drop in oil prices was mainly due to the growing influence of the U.S. economic slowdown in Europe and Japan as well as the signs of a slowdown in the global economy in the third quarter as more and more emerging developing countries supported by the sharp rise in oil prices in the first half of the year , Which directly led to a significant shift in the supply and demand of the crude oil market. The high oil price has gradually suppressed the impact of crude oil demand. At the same time, the economic decline in Europe and Japan also stimulated the recent sharp rise in the U.S. dollar exchange rate, boosting the drop in international crude oil prices.