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中国股票市场在估值的国际静态乃至动态比较中,目前已经进入了合理的可比区间,历史上封闭市场时期所存在的明显的高估现象已经被四年多的下跌和经济增长所基本消化。市场开放、经济周期、制度变迁等因素所诱发的资本流动,决定了A股未来的估值水平及变化趋势。在制度变迁和宏观联动的双重因素作用下,未来中国证券市场仍然存在差异化的投资机会。
China’s stock market has now entered a fairly comparable range in the international static and even dynamic comparison of valuations. The obvious overestimation phenomenon that has existed in the closed market in history has been basically digested by more than four years of decline and economic growth. The capital flow induced by factors such as market opening, economic cycles and institutional changes determines the future valuation and trend of A shares. Under the dual factors of institutional change and macro linkage, there are still different investment opportunities in China’s securities market in the future.