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收集2005—2014年30个省、自治区和直辖市的面板数据,运用全局因子分析法将创新分解成创新能力、创新环境和创新产业结构3个要素,从基础异质和环境规制双重视角出发,构建了创新驱动低碳发展的理论假设模型,并运用面板分位数回归模型进行了实证检验。取得了以下主要结论:(1)在省域层面,创新的减排效应大于增长效应,可以促进低碳发展,具体包括提高创新能力和优化创新产业结构这两条路径,但创新环境对低碳发展的促进作用不显著;(2)各地区低碳发展的基础异质性显著影响创新能力和创新产业结构对低碳发展的促进作用,落后地区存在后发优势,即发展基础越差,创新促进低碳发展的作用越显著,并且该优势对排在后20%~30%的省份更加明显;(3)加强环境规制可以提升创新能力对低碳发展的促进效果,起到积极的调节作用,但分别受创新瓶颈和技术基础影响,该调节作用在最先进地区和最落后地区失效。
The panel data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government from 2005 to 2014 are collected and the factor of innovation is decomposed into three parts: innovation ability, innovation environment and innovation industrial structure by using global factor analysis method. From the perspective of basic heterogeneity and environmental regulation, The hypothetical model of innovation-driven low-carbon development was tested and the empirical test was carried out by using panel quantile regression model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) At the provincial level, the innovation effect of emission reduction is greater than the growth effect, which can promote low-carbon development, including two aspects: improving innovation capability and optimizing innovative industrial structure. However, (2) The basic heterogeneity of low-carbon development in all regions significantly affects the promotion of low-carbon development by innovation capability and innovative industrial structure. The backward regions have the advantage of backward development, ie, the worse their development foundation and innovation The more significant is the promotion of low-carbon development, and this advantage is more obvious for the provinces ranked in the later 20% to 30%; (3) Enhancing environmental regulation can improve the promotion effect of innovation ability on low-carbon development and play a positive regulatory role , But were affected by the bottleneck of innovation and the technical basis, respectively, and the regulatory effect lapsed in the most advanced areas and the most backward areas.