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近年来,庞大的能源需求促使了我国海上石油运输业和开采业的井喷式发展,也加剧了海上溢油事故的风险。一次严重的溢油事故往往会给海洋环境造成不可逆转的伤害,给经济带来无法估量的损失。因此,开展海上溢油行为与归宿数值预测技术研究是非常有必要的,能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。本文综述了海上溢油行为与归宿数值预测技术的发展过程以及相关研究成果,包括溢油物理扩展模型、溢油漂移与扩散模型、溢油风化模型以及溢油预测模型系统,为未来海上溢油应急响应工作提供理论依据。
In recent years, the huge energy demand has promoted the spurt-jet development of China’s offshore oil transportation industry and mining industry and also aggravated the risk of oil spill accidents at sea. A serious oil spill will often cause irreversible damage to the marine environment and bring immeasurable economic losses. Therefore, it is very necessary to carry out the research on numerical prediction of oil spill behavior and fate at sea, which can provide technical support for the emergency response of oil spill at sea. This paper summarizes the development process of sea oil spill behavior and the final value of the numerical prediction technology and related research results, including oil spill physics expansion model, oil spill drift and diffusion model, oil spill weathering model and oil spill prediction model system for the future oil spill Emergency response to provide a theoretical basis.