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房地产恐将成为影响下半年经济走势最大的不确定因素。近日,二季度宏观经济数据集中公布。正如PMI指数、克强指数反弹所预示的那样,在前期稳增长政策集中发力之下,6月主要宏观经济数据整体向好,消费增速保持稳定,投资、工业生产数据有所提升,二季度GDP增速反弹至7.5%,环比回升2%。据此笔者预计,如果下半年“微刺激”与改革措施继续协调推进,三季度中国经济将可以保持向好趋势,全年GDP可以实
Real estate is likely to become the biggest uncertainty affecting the economy in the second half of the year. Recently, the second quarter macroeconomic data released. As predicted by the PMI and the rebound of the Keqiang Index, under the preconceived steady growth policies, the major macroeconomic data in June showed a positive trend as a whole, the growth rate of consumption remained stable, the investment and industrial production figures improved, and the second Quarterly GDP growth rebounded to 7.5%, up 2% QoQ. Based on this, I predict that if the second half of the “micro-stimulus” and the reform measures continue to coordinate and promote the third quarter of China’s economy will be able to maintain a good trend, the annual GDP can be real