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基于风险分析的定义,阐述了地下水污染风险分析的特征。从统计学角度上分析了地下水化学物质检测数据具有非正态概率分布、时空特征明显、具有模糊性、随机性、含有异常值和定性变量等特点。利用模糊综合评价数学模型对长春市地下水2004年至2008年的水质类别进行了判断,利用马尔可夫链风险评价模型对2009年和2010年的水质污染的变化趋势进行了预测,得出长春市地下水水质逐年恶化的趋势加剧,地下水水质状况短期内难以好转的结论。
Based on the definition of risk analysis, the characteristics of groundwater pollution risk analysis are expounded. From the statistical point of view, the test data of groundwater chemical substances have a non-normal probability distribution, with obvious spatio-temporal features, such as fuzziness, randomness, outliers and qualitative variables. Using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematical model to judge the water quality category of groundwater in Changchun from 2004 to 2008, using the Markov chain risk assessment model to predict the trend of water pollution in 2009 and 2010, we conclude that Changchun The trend of deteriorating groundwater quality is aggravating year by year, and the conclusion that groundwater quality is hard to be improved in a short period of time.