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目的:利用数学模型对我国未来五年的毒品形势进行预测研究,为公安机关禁毒管理部门提供有效的决策信息。方法:采用Oringin软件对我国2009年-2015年十一年来破获的毒品刑事案件、抓获的毒品犯罪嫌疑人、登记在册的吸毒人员、缴获的海洛因、缴获的冰毒及缴获的易制毒化学品进行趋势预测并分析。结果:用最小二乘法预测未来五年每年的毒品刑事案件数为17.398、19.517、21.781、24.188、26.740(万件);预计未来五年每年抓获的毒品犯罪嫌疑人为20.541、23.465、26.658、30.119、33.848(万人);预计未来五年每年登记在册的吸毒人员为233.937、266.228、301.361、339.337、380.154(万人);预计未来五年每年缴获的海洛因数量为11.321、13.176、15.274、17.615、20.199(吨);预计未来五年每年缴获的缴获的冰毒数量为25.404、29.541、34.036、38.889、44.101(吨);预计未来五年每年缴获的易制毒化学品数量为3781.289、4175.505、4578.456、4990.143、5410.564。结论:通过数学建模预测我国未来五年毒品刑事案件、毒品犯罪嫌疑人和登记在册的吸毒人员数量一直呈上升趋势,缴获的海洛因、冰毒及易制毒化学品数量也逐年增多,该结果有助于我国下一步制定有效的禁毒措施提供依据。
OBJECTIVE: To make use of the mathematical model to predict the drug situation in our country in the next five years and to provide effective decision-making information to the anti-narcotics management department of the public security organ. Methods: Oringin software was used to investigate the drug criminal cases uncovered in China during the eleven years of 2009-2015, the drug suspects arrested, drug addicts registered, heroin seized, methamphetamine seized and seized precursor chemicals seized Trend Forecasting and Analysis. Results: The least square method was used to predict the number of drug criminal cases per year in the next five years was 17.398, 19.517, 21.781, 24.188 and 26.740 (10,000 cases). The number of drug suspects captured each year in the next five years was 20.541, 23.465, 26.658 and 30.119, 33.848 million; Drug abusers registered in the next five years are 233.937,266.228,301.361,339.337,380.154 (million) each year; The number of heroin seized each year in the next five years is estimated to be 11.321, 13.176, 15.274, 17.615 and 20.199 (Tons); The quantity of methamphetamine seized in the next five years is estimated to be 25.404, 29.541, 34.036, 38.889 and 4.101 tons per year. The number of precursor chemicals seized every year for the next five years is 3781.289, 4175.505, 4578.456 and 4990.143 , 5410.564. Conclusions: Through mathematical modeling to predict the number of drug criminal cases in China in the next five years, the number of drug suspects and registered drug abusers has been on the rise. The quantity of heroin, methamphetamine and precursor chemicals seized increased year by year. Help our country to formulate an effective anti-drug measures to provide the basis for the next step.