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[目的]介绍如何应用灰色关联分析的方法了解法定报告传染病发病规律。[方法]对1998—2007年宁波市镇海区资料完整的8种传染病发病数据建立灰色系统模型,进行数据处理分析。[结果]在所列的8个病种中,对甲乙类法定报告传染病总发病率的发展趋势最接近的病种由大到小的顺序依次是:淋病、细菌性痢疾、结核病、病毒性肝炎、出血热、伤寒副伤寒、梅毒及麻疹。[结论]综观10年镇海区传染病的发病情况,病毒性肝炎、淋病、肺结核和细菌性痢疾是发病率较高的病种,降低其发病率是降低总发病率的主要环节。
[Objective] To introduce how to apply the method of gray relational analysis to understand the regularity of the pathogenesis of infectious diseases. [Method] A gray system model was established for the data of 8 infectious diseases with complete data in Zhenhai District of Ningbo City from 1998 to 2007 and the data processing was analyzed. [Results] Among the 8 listed diseases, the order of the most common disease trends of the total reported incidence of notifiable A and B infectious diseases was: gonorrhea, bacillary dysentery, tuberculosis, viral Hepatitis, haemorrhagic fever, typhoid paratyphoid, syphilis and measles. [Conclusion] Looking at the incidence of infectious diseases in Zhenhai District in the past 10 years, viral hepatitis, gonorrhea, tuberculosis and bacillary dysentery are the most common diseases with the highest incidence. To reduce the incidence of infectious diseases is the main step to reduce the overall incidence.