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在地震预报工作中,关于预报能力和地震活动“正常”、“异常“的估计,目前主要依赖于已有的震例和预报实例,因此,对某一具体地震事件的预报成功与否以及对不同预报意见优劣的评定应有一定量标准。在过去的预报实践中,常有人对地震时、空、强三要素提出非常具体的预报意见。在众多的预报意见中,有些和以后发生的情况较接近,有些则相差很大。对于前者有时也还存在着种种争议,如预报有否确切的论据,是报对还是碰对等。下面从模糊数学的观点出发,讨论对预报意见的“给分“,以供比较。
In the earthquake prediction work, the estimates of “normal” and “anomaly” of forecasting ability and seismicity mainly depend on the existing earthquake cases and forecasting examples. Therefore, the prediction of the success of a particular earthquake event, Evaluation of the pros and cons of different forecasts should have a certain amount of standards. In the past forecasting practice, people often made very specific forecasts about the three elements of the earthquake, air and land. Among the many forecasts, some are close to what happened in the future, while others vary widely. For the former, there are still sometimes controversial issues such as whether there is an exact argument for the forecast, whether it is a match or a reciprocity. The following from the perspective of fuzzy mathematics to discuss the forecasting of the “points” for comparison.