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在展望2017年的困境之前,咱们先探究一下这个困境的由来。表面上看,2016年GDP是6.7%,似乎是“软着陆”已实现,接下来就该享受“探底回升”的幸福时光了。然而,全世界甭管您是第一第二第三世界,不真心改革,能有这好事儿?我们常听有人说中国经济的基本面是好的,而许小年教授勾勒的基本面是这样的:经济增长、企业发展靠银行贷款、股市融资来投资扩张的增长模式走到尽头了,因为资本的边际收益递减,且政府和企业的资源已用到了极限。政府可以通过投
Before we look at the plight of 2017, let us explore the origin of this dilemma. On the face of it, 2016 GDP is 6.7%, which seems to be “soft landing” has been realized, then you should enjoy the “bottoming out” of the happy hour. However, since the world is in charge of being the first second Third World, it is not good to reform and can have such a good thing. We often hear people say that the fundamentals of China’s economy are good, and the fundamentals outlined by Professor Xu Xiaonian are as follows: : Economic growth, business growth depends on bank loans, stock market financing to expand the growth model comes to an end, because the marginal returns to capital diminishing, and the government and business resources have been used to the limit. The government can vote