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今年以来,受到政府继续实施扩大内需政策及全球经济进一步复苏影响,我国经济运行中出现了国内需求快速增加、外贸经济复苏明显、金融市场稳定运行、工业生产效益持续改善等良好发展态势。但与此同时,也存在着经济增长内生动力不足、通胀压力增大、房地产价格上涨过快、产能过剩问题更加凸显等矛盾和问题。展望未来,国民经济总体上将继续保持回升态势,国内需求仍会稳定增长,出现高通胀可能性不大;外贸增速将大幅度提高,但顺差将进一步缩小;依赖政策支持,工业生产效益将持续改善;房地产市场调控效应会逐步显现。与此同时,宽松政策将继续趋紧,银行体系流动性分化加剧;直接融资增多,存款期限结构与股市运行联动性增强;银行业将加大结构调整及风险防范力度。
Since the beginning of this year, as the government continues to implement the policy of expanding domestic demand and the further recovery of the global economy, China has witnessed a sound development trend of rapid growth of domestic demand, evident recovery of its foreign trade economy, stable operation of financial markets and continuous improvement of industrial production efficiency. However, at the same time, there are also contradictions and problems such as the lack of endogenous vitality in economic growth, the increase in inflationary pressures, the rapid rise of real estate prices and the overcapacity issues. Looking forward, the national economy as a whole will continue its upward trend. The domestic demand will continue to grow steadily. It is unlikely that there will be high inflation. The growth rate of foreign trade will increase substantially but the surplus will be further narrowed. By relying on policy support and industrial production efficiency, Continue to improve; real estate market regulation and control will gradually appear. At the same time, easing will continue to tighten, and the liquidity of the banking system will be more differentiated. Direct financing will increase and the deposit maturity structure will be more linked to the operation of the stock market. Banking institutions will intensify structural adjustment and risk prevention.