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风险分析是在不确定的情况下响应决策的方法。不确定性在大坝的生命周期中是普遍存在的 ,可能比其它任何一种土木建筑更普遍 :地质、水资源管理、地震和洪水、施工计划、成本与融资、大坝安全管理与下游风险。将工程判断转化为数据时的偶然性差错 ,由在替代方案中允许进行合理选择的可能性所补偿 ,并且由量化成本与风险之间的比较方案的透明度来衡量。然而 ,误用和误差也有其缺陷。本文从正反两方面阐述了一些观点的精华。
Risk analysis is a method of responding to decisions in situations of uncertainty. Uncertainties are ubiquitous throughout the dam’s life cycle and may be more common than any other civil construction: geology, water management, earthquakes and floods, construction planning, costs and financing, dam safety management and downstream risk . Incidental errors in the conversion of engineering judgment to data are compensated by the likelihood of allowing a reasonable choice in the alternative and are measured by the transparency of the comparison program between quantified costs and risk. However, misuse and error also have their drawbacks. This essay elaborates the essence of some opinions from two aspects.