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为了研究中国西部可持续的能源开发利用战略,建立了西部可持续能源开发利用模型。该模型以能源系统优化模型——MARKAL模型为内核,耦合了能源服务需求预测模块、水资源需求模块、污染物排放模块、经济分析模块和内生技术学习模块。应用该模型研究了2000—2050年间西部地区终端能源需求、一次能源供应、电力消费及构成、水资源需求以及污染物排放等。并分析了“能源东送”方案对西部能源系统的影响。结果显示,2050年中国西部终端能源消费量将达到12.43亿t,一次能源消费量将达到14.67亿t。预计“能源东送”方案实施后,一次能源消费、电力需求、水资源需求和污染物排放均会有较大幅度增加。
In order to study the sustainable energy development and utilization strategy in west China, a model of sustainable energy development and utilization in western China was established. The model uses the energy system optimization model - MARKAL model as the kernel, and is coupled with the energy service demand forecasting module, the water resource demand module, the pollutant discharging module, the economic analysis module and the endogenous technology learning module. This model is used to study the terminal energy demand, primary energy supply, electricity consumption and composition, water resource demand and pollutant discharge in the western region from 2000 to 2050. And analyzed the impact of the “eastward transmission of energy” program on the western energy system. The results show that by 2050, terminal energy consumption in western China will reach 1,243 million tons and primary energy consumption will reach 1,467 million tons. After the implementation of the “East-East Energy Transmission Project”, the primary energy consumption, electricity demand, water demand and pollutant emissions will all increase substantially.