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改革开放以后,伴随着中国经济高速增长,频繁的交通事故已经成为严重的公共安全问题。本文采用1979-2012年经济增长和交通风险数据建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,分析了经济增长与交通风险指标之间的关联性。研究结果证明,1979-2012年间经济增长与交通风险之间存在长期关系,经济增长规模比经济增长速度对交通风险的影响更加显著。经济增长冲击对交通风险指标影响显著,经济繁荣对交通风险有显著拉动作用。
After the reform and opening up, along with China’s rapid economic growth, frequent traffic accidents have become serious public safety issues. In this paper, a vector autoregression (VAR) model is established by using economic growth and traffic risk data from 1979 to 2012 to analyze the correlation between economic growth and traffic risk indicators. The results of the study show that there is a long-term relationship between economic growth and traffic risk between 1979 and 2012, and the impact of the economic growth scale on traffic risk is more significant than the economic growth rate. Impact of economic growth has a significant impact on traffic risk indicators, economic prosperity has a significant pulling effect on traffic risk.