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全文用武汉市1990年～1997年食管癌的发病资料及1990年～1999年食管癌的死亡资料 ,对武汉市食管癌的发病和死亡用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型 yt=(x1-u/a)e-a(t -1)+u/a分别预测了1998年～2004年食管癌的发病及2000年～2004年食管癌的死亡变化趋势 ,灰色模型预测方程为食管癌发病率y(t)=2834.71e3.59×10 -2825.54 ,食管癌的死亡率 y(t)= -858.41e-9.28×10 +866.82。经预测认为食管癌的发病率呈缓慢上升 ,而死亡率呈缓慢下降。
Full text with the incidence of esophageal cancer in Wuhan City from 1990 to 1997 and death data of esophageal cancer from 1990 to 1999, the gray system GM (1,1) model yt = (x1- u / a) ea (t -1) + u / a respectively predicted the incidence of esophageal cancer from 1998 to 2004 and the trend of death from esophageal cancer from 2000 to 2004. The gray model predicts the incidence of esophageal cancer y t = 2834.71e3.59 × 10 -2825.54, the mortality rate of esophageal cancer y (t) = -858.41e-9.28 × 10 +866.82. It is predicted that the incidence of esophageal cancer showed a slow increase, while the mortality rate showed a slow decline.