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如果说21世纪是亚洲的世纪,是中国的世纪,那么从市场层面上看,2006年的中国崛起,很显要地被资产升值确认着。无论是中国的人民币还是其项下可流动的便于交易的资产——房子抑或股票。中国资产的群体性走高,是世界对这个市场国家的定价的走高,但之所以发生在2006年而不是其它,自然与内外环境有关。现在的情况是这样的:人们一边抱怨着全球流动性泛滥,一边又积极参与其中,获取“阿尔法”回报(alpha,即高于市场基准水平的超额回报)。这种状况目前令任何人都难以阻挡。2001年9.11事件之后,美国采取双赤字(贸易赤字、财政赤字)政策,导致美元纸币的滥印。美国可以这么做,全球流通的美元,只有1/3在美国本土,加之全球化带来的生产成本大幅降低,令美国可以回避掉通胀之苦,但美元迅速由硬变软,不断贬值。这个时候,中国也必须打开人民币汇率的游戏规划,走向强势升值的路径。加之现行的资本项目不可兑换的外汇政策,人民币需要对应每年600亿美元的外国直接投资在国内投放。人民币的流动性过剩相较全球只能有过之而无不及。如此内外因素累积并化合,中国迎来了这个被资产亢奋确认的2006年。这种内外环境,我们应对好了,就可以称之为机遇;应对不好,甚至可能走向灾难。
If the 21st century is the century of Asia and the century of China, then from a market perspective, the rise of China in 2006 was apparently confirmed by the appreciation of assets. Whether it is China’s renminbi or its tradable assets that are easily traded-houses or stocks. The group-raising of Chinese assets is a result of the world pricing higher for this market country. However, it happened in 2006 rather than the rest and is naturally related to the internal and external environment. The situation now is this: People are complaining about the global liquidity, and they are actively involved in getting “alpha” returns (alpha, that is, excess returns above the market benchmark). This situation is currently hard to stop by anyone. After September 11, 2001, the United States adopted the policy of double deficits (trade deficits and fiscal deficits), resulting in the overprint of dollar bills. The United States can do this. Only one-third of the U.S. dollar circulating in the United States and the substantial reduction in production costs brought by globalization have enabled the United States to sidestep inflation. However, the U.S. dollar has rapidly softened and devalued. At this time, China must also open the RMB exchange rate of the game plan, to a strong appreciation of the path. Coupled with the existing non-convertible foreign exchange policy on capital account, the RMB needs to correspond to the annual foreign direct investment of 60 billion U.S. dollars in China. Excessive liquidity of the renminbi compared to the world can only have worse. This accumulation of internal and external factors and chemical compound, China ushered in this asset was excited to confirm 2006. This internal and external environment, we deal with well, we can call it an opportunity; deal with the bad, and may even go to disaster.