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１９８５—１９９０年，在勐撒分场海拔６７０—１０１０米胶园范围内，以ＰＢ８６无性系为材料，研究病害充行速度随气象因素、叶片发育阶段及胶园郁蔽度不同而变的规律。结果表明，平均最低温低于１０℃条件下，流行速度的高低主要决定于平均最低温度；高于１０℃时，速度与平均最高温度是极显著曲线相关，与日均温、平均最低温和平均相对湿度均无显著相关；温度相同条件下，速度与叶龄呈显著或极显著的负相关，胶林郁蔽后的速度显著高于郁蔽前。流行速度（ｒ）依平均最高温度（Ｘ１）和叶龄（Ｘ２）而变的多元曲线关系为：ｒ＝－２５４．９１０３＋２４．２５２６Ｘ１－０．５０１５Ｘ２１－３．６０７４Ｘ２（１）郁蔽前ｒ＝－３４１．１３０５＋３０．９３０３Ｘ１－０．５８３６２１－１０．１６６８Ｘ２（２）郁蔽后流行结构分析结果表明，流行速度是流行结构中最重要组份，病害的严重度主要决定于流行速度。本文还讨论了防治策略和病情预测等问题。
From 1985 to 1990, in the area of 670-1010 m above sea level in Mengsafaluan, using the PB86 clones as materials, we studied the regularity that the filling and spreading speed of the disease varied with the meteorological factors, leaf development stage and the degree of plasticity . The results showed that the prevalence rate was mainly determined by the average minimum temperature when the average minimum temperature was lower than 10 ℃. When the temperature was higher than 10 ℃, the average maximum temperature was extremely significantly correlated with the mean daily minimum temperature and average minimum temperature There was no significant correlation between relative humidity and relative humidity. Under the same temperature, there was a significant or extremely significant negative correlation between speed and leaf age. The multivariate curve of prevailing speed (r) according to the average maximum temperature (X1) and leaf age (X2) was: r = -254.9103 + 24.2526X1-0.5015X21-3.6074X2 (1) -341.1305 + 30.9303X1-0.583621-10.1668X2 (2) The epidemic structure analysis results show that epidemic velocity is the most important component in the epidemic structure. The severity of the disease mainly depends on the epidemic velocity. This article also discusses prevention and treatment strategies and disease prediction and other issues.