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受厄尔尼诺现象等因素的影响,2016年南方降水明显偏丰。由于汛期提前,即使在水电发电能力和特高压输电能力相对稳定的前提下,全年水电高负荷出力和输送的状态会更长,对煤炭市场的影响也相对更大。通过分析外地水电调入和当地水力发电对沿海地区电煤消耗的挤出效应,提出在经济L型走势的背景下,后期煤炭需求将整体疲弱,煤炭市场的平衡需要加大供给侧改革的力度来实现。
Affected by the El Niño phenomenon and other factors, the precipitation in southern China in 2016 was significantly over-abundance. Due to the early flood season, even under the relatively stable hydropower generation capacity and UHV transmission capacity, hydropower high load output and delivery will be longer and the impact on the coal market will be relatively greater. By analyzing the squeezing effect of foreign hydropower and local hydropower on coal consumption in coastal areas, it is proposed that in the background of economic L-shaped trend, the overall demand for coal will be sluggish in the latter part of the country, and the balance of coal market needs to be intensified in supply-side reform to fulfill.