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供电量的月度预测对电力公司相关部门具有重要意义,1、2月份因包含春节而具有各历史年供电量差别较大的特点,导致使用常规月度供电量预测方法对其预测将产生较大误差。针对这一问题,推荐采用移位修正法,给出了预测思路及计算步骤,并以某地区为例,借助Mat-lab仿真软件分别采用常规方法及移位修正法对该地区1、2月份网供电量进行预测。结果显示,移位修正法比常规方法具有更好的预测精度,证明了该方法的有效性,所采用的方法对1、2月份供电量预测具有实用价值。
The monthly forecast of power supply is of great significance to the relevant departments of the power company. In January and February, due to the inclusion of the Spring Festival, it has the characteristics of large differences in historical power supply each year, leading to large errors in its forecast using the conventional monthly power supply forecasting method . In order to solve this problem, it is recommended to use the shift correction method. The forecasting method and calculation steps are given. Taking a certain area as an example, Mat-lab simulation software is used to calculate the displacement of the area in January and February Network power supply to predict. The results show that the shift correction method has better prediction accuracy than the conventional method, and the method is proved to be effective. The proposed method is of practical value for the power supply forecast in January and February.