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目的:阐明累积和法用于北京市流感暴发预警的有效性。方法:应用基于累积和算法的早期异常报告系统(early aberration reporting system,EARS)对北京市流感样病例监测数据进行预警分析,以流感病原学监测结果作为判断流感高峰来临的金标准。结果:2009年至2010年北京市共有421家医院开展了流感样病例监测,7家网络实验室开展了流感病原学监测。2009年6月至2010年4月,421家医院的平均流感样病例百分比为2.56%,共在11家医院采集流感样病例咽拭子19 262份,分离流感病毒5 045株,以新甲型H1N1流感病毒为主。使用累积和法对北京市二级以上医院流感样病例监测数据进行分析较好地预警了流感高峰的来临。结论:应用累积和法对北京市流感监测数据进行分析,可以高效准确地对流感高峰进行预警。
Objective: To clarify the validity of cumulative sum method for early warning of flu outbreak in Beijing. Methods: Early warning analysis of influenza-like illness surveillance data in Beijing was conducted by using an early aberration reporting system (EARS) based on the cumulative sum algorithm. Flu-pathogen surveillance was used as the gold standard for determining the peak of influenza. Results: From 2009 to 2010, a total of 421 hospitals in Beijing conducted influenza-like illness surveillance and 7 network laboratories conducted influenza pathogen surveillance. From June 2009 to April 2010, the average percentage of influenza-like cases in 421 hospitals was 2.56%. A total of 19 262 throat swabs were collected from 11 hospitals and 5 045 influenza viruses were isolated. H1N1 influenza virus-based. Using the cumulative sum method to analyze the surveillance data of influenza-like cases in hospitals above the second class in Beijing is a good indicator of the arrival of the flu peak. Conclusion: Using the cumulative sum method to analyze the flu surveillance data in Beijing, the flu peak can be effectively and accurately warned.