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细菌性痢疾是常见疾病,也是备受关注的公共健康问题。近年来,京津唐地区的细菌性痢疾发病率相对较高。本文首先分析了2012年京津唐地区细菌性痢疾的季节性和人群特征;其次,使用热点分析模型,探索了京津唐地区细菌性痢疾发病率的时空聚集性;最后,运用地理探测器模型研究了细菌性痢疾的发生和社会经济因素之间的量化关系。结果表明:1细菌性痢疾发病的峰值时间是8月;发病率最高的年龄段是0-9岁,其次是80岁以上;农民群体发病率最高,其次是散居儿童。2京津唐地区细菌性痢疾在空间和时间上都存在聚集性。空间上,细菌性痢疾发病率的高聚集区主要分布于北京市的房山区及门头沟区和天津市的滨海新区,低聚集区主要分布于唐山市的滦县,时间上,细菌性痢疾发病率的高聚集区在12个月均有发生,低聚集区主要发生在1-4月以及6月。3影响细菌性痢疾发病率空间分布的主要社会经济因素为农村人口占总人口的比例、人口密度和各区县的人均GDP,它们的解释力分别为61%,37%和20%,并且发现它们的交互作用都大于独自影响的作用。本研究通过对京津唐地区细菌性痢疾发病情况的人群特征、时空特征以及影响因素的分析,为本地区细菌性痢疾的预防和控制提供理论依据。
Bacillary dysentery is a common disease and is a public health concern of great concern. In recent years, Beijing, Tianjin and Tang dynasty, the incidence of bacterial dysentery is relatively high. This article first analyzed the seasonal and crowd characteristics of bacterial dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan in 2012. Secondly, using the hot spot analysis model, the spatial and temporal aggregation of bacterial dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan was explored. Finally, The relationship between the occurrence of bacterial dysentery and the socio-economic factors was studied. The results showed that: 1 The onset time of bacterial dysentery was August; the highest incidence was 0-9 years old, followed by 80 years old; the highest incidence of peasant groups was followed by scattered children. 2 Bacterial dysentery in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area is aggregated both in space and time. Spatially, the high incidence of bacterial dysentery is mainly located in Fangshan District, Mentougou District of Beijing and Binhai New Area of Tianjin. The low aggregation area is mainly distributed in Luan County, Tangshan City. In time, the incidence of bacterial dysentery Of the high concentration area occurred in 12 months, low concentration area occurs mainly in January-April and June. The main socioeconomic factors affecting the spatial distribution of the incidence of bacterial dysentery are the ratio of rural population to total population, population density and per capita GDP of all districts and counties, which are respectively 61%, 37% and 20%, and they are found The interaction is greater than the influence alone. This study provides a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of bacillary dysentery in the region through the analysis of population characteristics, spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the incidence of bacterial dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan area.