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高速公路改扩建工程既有桥梁的技术状况评定,是针对当前检测结果所作的评定。其评定的有效性理所当然具有一定的时效性。随着时间的推移,桥梁的实际技术状况将不可避免的有一定程度的劣化。我国高速公路改扩建从前期规划到后期实施通常有2~3年的预备期。因此,对于现在评定为满足要求的桥梁,到正式开始改扩建时,是否还能满足要求,也是需要认真考虑的问题。本文依据既有桥梁当前的检测评定的结果,借助统计方面的一些研究成果,尝试对3年后的桥梁技术状态进行了预测。
Evaluation of the technical condition of the existing bridges for expressway reconstruction and extension project is an assessment of the current test results. The effectiveness of its assessment of course has a certain degree of timeliness. With the passage of time, the bridge’s actual technical conditions will inevitably have a certain degree of deterioration. China’s expressway reconstruction from the preliminary planning to the late implementation usually have 2 to 3 years of preparation. Therefore, it is also an issue that needs to be seriously considered if the bridges that are now assessed to meet the requirements can not meet the requirements until the official commencement of reconstruction and extension. Based on the current testing results of existing bridges, this paper attempts to predict the technical status of bridges after 3 years by means of some research achievements in statistics.