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本文基于内生劳动力迁移的世代交叠(OLG)模型,采用31个省份2000年至2013年的动态面板数据实证分析我国基本养老保险支出水平和以劳动力迁移为主的影响因素的相关性。理论分析与实证结果一致地表明:非迁移人口占比与支出水平负相关,缴费率与支出水平呈阶段性正相关,人口老龄化程度与支出水平负相关。因此,为建立公平、统一和规范的基本养老保险统筹基金制度,应当增加劳动力市场弹性和灵活度,促进劳动力在地区之间的流动,从长期来看,这会使支出水平地区差异逐渐收敛。此外,若考虑提升统筹层次,适时推出全国统筹,有助于打破劳动力多向流动的政策障碍,提升劳动力市场的公平性。
Based on the Generation Overlap (OLG) model of Endogenous Labor Migration, this paper uses the dynamic panel data of 31 provinces from 2000 to 2013 to analyze empirically the correlation between the level of China’s basic pension insurance expenditure and the influencing factors of labor migration. The theoretical analysis and empirical results show that the proportion of non-migrants is negatively correlated with the level of expenditure, and the contribution rate is positively correlated with the level of expenditure. The degree of population aging is negatively correlated with the level of expenditure. Therefore, in order to establish a fair, uniform and standardized basic old-age insurance fund system, it is necessary to increase the flexibility and flexibility of the labor market and promote the labor mobility among regions. In the long run, this will gradually reduce the regional differences in expenditure levels. In addition, considering the enhancement of the overall co-ordination level and the timely introduction of a national co-ordination plan will help to break the policy barriers to a multi-directional movement of labor force and enhance the fairness of the labor market.