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第二次世界大战以后,世界经济曾经经历了20多年时间的迅速繁荣和增长。但是,从70年代初开始,除了东亚若干国家和地区以外,主要资本主义国家和绝大多数发展中国家的经济都深受失业、通货膨胀以及债务等等的困扰,经济增长缓慢乃至停滞,这种局面已经延续了20余年。世界周期经济是否有可能在近期走出低谷,再次出现全球性的繁荣和增长?这是各国政府、经济学家、工商界和一般民众普遍关心的问题。正是这种背景下,经济问题,特别是长周期成为近一二十年来经济学研究的一个重要领域。下面我们简单介绍一下康德拉捷夫周期理论的由来和目前的主要研究进展。
After the Second World War, the world economy experienced a period of more than 20 years of rapid prosperity and growth. However, from the early 1970s, except for some countries and regions in East Asia, the economies of the major capitalist countries and the vast majority of developing countries were plagued by unemployment, inflation and debt problems, their economic growth was slow and even stagnant, which The situation has been extended for more than 20 years. Is it possible for the world cycle economy to bottom out in the near future and once again there will be global prosperity and growth? This is a general concern of all governments, economists, business people and the general public. It is against this background that economic issues, especially the long cycle, have become an important area of economic research in the last decade or two. Here we briefly introduce the origin of the Kondratov cycle theory and the current major research progress.