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21世纪的美国能否同时打赢两场局部战争,对于这个问题,笔者曾在《当代海军》1997年第六期上作过专题分析,其基本结论是:从世界经济发展和政治格局看,美国这个“世界警察”的角色将越来越难当了;从美国军队的现状看,无论数量和质量都难以担负起同时保证打赢两场大规模地区性战争的使命。从美国国防部制定的《四年防务审查报告》和参谋长联席会通过的《2010年联合构想》中,可以发现美国战略家和决策者正在针对遇到的新情况而适时调整军队的发展战略,以保证美军在未来的21世纪“必须具备打赢几乎同时发生的两场大规模地区性战争的能力”。
In the 21st century, whether the United States can win two partial wars at the same time or not, for this issue, the author made a special analysis on the sixth issue of “Contemporary Navy” in 1997. The basic conclusion is: From the perspective of world economic development and political structure, The role of the United States as a “world police” will become increasingly difficult. From the current state of the U.S. military, it is difficult to assume the mission of guaranteeing and winning two large-scale regional wars, both in quantity and in quality. From the “Four-year Defense Review Report” formulated by the U.S. Department of Defense and the “Joint Vision 2010” adopted by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. strategists and policy makers can find that they are adjusting their military development strategies in light of the new situation they encounter. So as to ensure that the U.S. military must “have the ability to win two large-scale regional wars in the near future at the same time in the 21st century in the future.”