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传染性疾病,即人们常说的传染病,自古以来就是困扰人类社会的重大问题。近年来随着经济全球化的进程不断深化,传染病流行爆发的可能性不断增加,对传染病进行风险分析就显得越发重要。风险评估方法通常可分为定性和定量分析两大类,其中定量分析是通过数学建模试图将安全风险进行量化分析评估的一种方法。拉丁超立方抽样法是目前定量风险分析中较常使用的一种基于蒙特卡洛模拟的分层抽样方法。由于该方法抽样得到的输入随机变量的样本空间总是比随机抽样的覆盖面大,使得拉丁超立方抽样得到广泛推广及应用。本文对风险分析和拉丁超立方抽样法的基本原理进行介绍,并重点回顾了拉丁超立方抽样法在人类传染性疾病,动物传染性疾病以及人畜共患传染性疾病相关的风险分析中的应用。通过本文的论述,是人们对于拉丁超立方抽样法有了更清晰的概念,并了解其在当前传染性疾病预警中的应用前景。
Infectious diseases, often referred to as communicable diseases, have been major problems plaguing human society since ancient times. In recent years, with the deepening of the process of economic globalization, the outbreak of infectious diseases is increasingly likely, and the risk analysis of infectious diseases becomes more and more important. Generally, risk assessment methods can be divided into two categories: qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Quantitative analysis is a method that is used to quantitatively evaluate security risks through mathematical modeling. The Latin hypercube sampling method is a stratified sampling method based on Monte-Carlo simulation, which is commonly used in quantitative risk analysis. Since the sample space of input random variables sampled by this method is always larger than the random sample, the Latin hypercube sampling has been widely popularized and applied. This paper introduces the basic principles of risk analysis and Latin hypercube sampling, and reviews the application of Latin hypercube sampling in the risk analysis of infectious diseases, zoonotic diseases and zoonotic diseases. Through the discussion in this article, people have a clearer idea of the Latin hypercube sampling method and understand its application prospects in the current warning of infectious diseases.