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针对应急救灾供应链与商业供应链在交付时间及订货上的显著差异,构建了以社会成本最小化为目标函数的多阶段物资订购-分派模型。推导证明了:在应急救灾供应链环境下,当交付时间为随机变量时,牛鞭效应的存在性;在交付时间方差增大时,订单数量方差也会相应增大,从而增强牛鞭效应。研究表明,由于应急救灾供应链相较传统商业供应链其交付时间上具有更大的不确定性,会导致应急救灾供应链产生更大程度的信息失真,即更为严重的牛鞭效应。应急救灾行动中,如果能降低交付时间的不确定性,就可以削弱牛鞭效应对应急救灾行动的影响,并提高应急救灾行动的整体绩效。
Aiming at the significant difference in delivery time and order between emergency relief supply chain and commercial supply chain, a multistage material order-dispatch model with social cost minimization as objective function is constructed. The deduction proves that the bullwhip effect exists when the delivery time is a random variable in the environment of emergency relief supply chain. When the variance of delivery time increases, the variance of order quantity will also increase correspondingly, which enhances the bullwhip effect. The research shows that due to the greater uncertainty in the delivery time of the emergency relief supply chain compared with the traditional commercial supply chain, it will lead to a greater degree of information distortion in the emergency relief supply chain, namely the more serious bullwhip effect. Emergency relief efforts, if reduced in delivery time, can reduce the impact of the bullwhip effect on emergency response operations and enhance the overall performance of emergency response operations.