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目的应用分类树模型筛选公共场所喷泉水嗜肺军团菌污染的危险因素,为预防和控制喷泉水军团菌污染提供科学依据。方法选择深圳市公共场所正运行的50座喷泉作为研究对象,采用问卷调查、现场监测及实验室检测等方式于2015年7月至2015年12月收集相关数据,利用分类树模型分析喷泉水嗜肺军团菌污染的影响因素,采取ROC曲线对模型进行评价。结果构建的分类树模型包括2层,共4个结点,共筛选出2个解释变量:溶解性总固体含量、游离性余氯含量;其中最为重要的影响因素为溶解性总固体含量,其次为游离性余氯含量。分类树模型ROC曲线下面积为0.898(95%CI:0.808 8~0.986 2),预测效果较好。结论利用分类树模型挖据得出喷泉水溶解性总固体、游离性余氯是影响喷泉水嗜肺军团菌污染的主要因素,因此加强喷泉水水质管理对预防军团菌病有重要卫生学意义。
Objective To classify the risk factors of Legionella pneumophila infection in fountains in public places by using the classification tree model to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of Legionella pneumophila contamination. Methods Fifty fountains in public places in Shenzhen were selected as research objects. The data were collected from July 2015 to December 2015 by means of questionnaires, on-site monitoring and laboratory tests. The classification tree model was used to analyze water fountain Pulmonary Legionella contamination of the factors that take the ROC curve to evaluate the model. Results The classification tree model consisted of 2 layers and 4 nodes, and two explanatory variables were screened out: total soluble solids content and free residual chlorine content; the most important influencing factors were total dissolved solids content, followed by For the free residual chlorine content. The area under the ROC curve of the classification tree model was 0.898 (95% CI: 0.808 8 ~ 0.986 2), and the prediction effect was better. Conclusions It is concluded that the total dissolved solids of fountain water and the free residual chlorine are the main factors that affect the Legionella pneumophila infection in fountain waters. Therefore, it is of great significance to strengthen fountain water quality management in the prevention of Legionnaires’ disease.