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分析了影响西藏河流径流的主要因素包括降水、气温等,构建BP神经网络对西藏河流流量进行预测.在气温升高0.5℃、降水不变,气温不变、降水增加10%和气温升高0.5℃、降水增加10%3种气候条件下,对位于江孜的满拉水利枢纽处河流2030年各月平均流量进行了预测,结果显示在气温升高0.5℃、降水不变的条件下,流量总体呈现下降的趋势;气温不变、降水增加10%条件下流量是增加的;气温升高0.5℃、降水增加10%条件下流量也是略呈减少的趋势.分析产生上述现象的原因,主要可能与当地强烈的蒸发随气温上升加强、降水与流量关系密切有关.
The main factors influencing runoff in Tibet are analyzed, including BP, BP, BP neural network, forecasting the flow of Tibet River.When the temperature rises by 0.5 ℃, the precipitation will not change, the temperature will not change, the precipitation will increase by 10% and the temperature will rise by 0.5 ℃, 10% increase in precipitation Under the three climatic conditions, the average monthly flow of rivers in Manla water control junction at Gyangze in 2030 is predicted. The results show that under the condition of the temperature rising 0.5 ℃ and the precipitation unchanged, the overall flow rate The flow rate increases with the increase of precipitation by 10%, and the flow rate decreases slightly with the increase of temperature by 0.5 ° C and the precipitation increase of 10% .Analysis of the causes of the above-mentioned phenomenon may mainly relate to Strong local evaporation with the temperature rise to strengthen the relationship between precipitation and flow are closely related.