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潜在产出与产出缺口和国家宏观经济波动密切相关,是判断国家经济运行健康与否的重要工具。本文采用中国的季度经济数据,运用状态空间Kalman滤波方法对中国潜在产出与产出缺口进行估计,并检验中国产出缺口与通货膨胀的关系。通过实证分析表明,1978—2010年中国存在适应性通货膨胀,产出缺口与通货膨胀存在正相关关系,通货膨胀预期对通货膨胀的变动具有一定的影响。
Potential output and output gap and macroeconomic fluctuations in the country are closely linked to determine the health of the country’s economic operation is an important tool. In this paper, China’s quarterly economic data are used to estimate the potential output and output gap in China by using the state space Kalman filtering method and to test the relationship between the output gap and inflation in China. Empirical analysis shows that there is a positive inflation between 1978 and 2010 in China, with a positive correlation between output gap and inflation, and inflation expectation has a certain impact on the change of inflation.